Decision SystemDecision 4 of 6

Growth-stage B2B company

A one-person revenue engine is not a sustainable business

A commercial team built, without anyone deciding it, around one exceptional producer.

An illustrative scenario. It does not describe a client or a real company.

Frame

Objective, horizon, non-negotiables and who holds authority.

A company’s highest-performing commercial leader generates approximately 30% of new revenue. Their compensation strongly rewards individual sales.

They retain relationships personally, promise delivery terms without operational involvement, give colleagues little account credit and have contributed to capable employees leaving. Customers trust the individual more than the company.

The CEO wants to promote and retain them. Operations wants controls. HR wants team-based compensation.

Should the company reward exceptional individual production, or redesign the system even if doing so causes the producer to leave?

Objective
Build a commercial capability that belongs to the company, without throwing away the skill that built the revenue.
Horizon
Two to four quarters: long enough for behaviour to be observed, short enough that dependency does not deepen.
Non-negotiables
  • Customers are protected through any transition.
  • Commitments to customers are ones the company can deliver.
Who decides
Chief executive. Compensation, promotion, succession and employment are the CEO’s decisions. They are not delegated to a model or a policy.

Observe

What is established, what is assumed and what is missing.

Every item is typed. Facts come from the scenario. Assumptions are illustrative quantities added so the consequences can be calculated. Unknowns are left unknown.

Established 6

  • Fact:

    The highest-performing commercial leader generates approximately 30% of new revenue.

    Given in the scenario. High confidence.

  • Fact:

    Their compensation strongly rewards individual sales.

    Given in the scenario. High confidence.

  • Fact:

    They hold relationships personally, promise delivery terms without operational involvement and give colleagues little account credit.

    Given in the scenario. High confidence.

  • Fact:

    Capable employees have left, and this behaviour contributed.

    Given in the scenario. High confidence.

  • Fact:

    Customers trust the individual more than the company.

    Given in the scenario. High confidence.

  • Fact:

    The CEO wants to promote and retain. Operations wants controls. HR wants team-based compensation.

    Given in the scenario. High confidence.

Assumed 5

  • Assumption:

    New revenue is €20m a year.

    Illustrative modelling assumption. Medium confidence.

  • Assumption:

    About 85% of the individual’s relationships are held personally, and 60% of that revenue would follow them out. Shared ownership would bring the personal share to 40%.

    Illustrative modelling assumption. Low confidence.

  • Assumption:

    35% of their deals carry delivery terms operations did not approve, costing 12 points of margin on those deals.

    Illustrative modelling assumption. Low confidence.

  • Assumption:

    4 regretted leavers in 18 months, at about €0.12m each to replace.

    Illustrative modelling assumption. Low confidence.

  • Assumption:

    On current incentives the individual’s share of new revenue grows about 6 points a year.

    Illustrative modelling assumption. Low confidence.

Not yet known 2

  • Unknown:

    Whether the individual can lead through others: developing colleagues, institutionalising relationships and selling what the company can deliver.

    Illustrative modelling assumption. Low confidence.

  • Unknown:

    Whether the individual would leave if the system changed.

    Illustrative modelling assumption. Low confidence.

Model

The relationships that can be calculated, and their limits.

Only relationships that can honestly be calculated are modelled. Apply one bounded pressure, or move one assumption, and follow the consequence across the organisation.

Apply one pressure
30%

Bounded to 10% to 50%.

Apply a pressure to see what moves, in what order, and where it stops.

Contest

Functional positions, conflict and a critic.

Each function answers in the same structure: a recommendation, the evidence it rests on, the assumption underneath, its confidence, the consequence for another function and the authority it would need.

The functional positions

Commercial

Argues for: promote and retain

Retain and promote. €6.0m of new revenue sits with one person, and €3.1m would leave with them. Do not provoke it.

Rests on
  • Fact:The highest-performing commercial leader generates approximately 30% of new revenue.
  • Fact:Customers trust the individual more than the company.
  • Assumption:About 85% of the individual’s relationships are held personally, and 60% of that revenue would follow them out. Shared ownership would bring the personal share to 40%.
Assumes
Promotion secures loyalty, and the behaviour can be coached afterwards.
Consequence for people
A promotion on current behaviour tells every other seller what the company rewards.
Medium confidenceRecommend

Operations

Argues against: promote and retain

Require operational approval for non-standard terms now. 35% of these deals carry commitments we did not agree, costing €0.3m a year.

Rests on
  • Fact:They hold relationships personally, promise delivery terms without operational involvement and give colleagues little account credit.
  • Assumption:35% of their deals carry delivery terms operations did not approve, costing 12 points of margin on those deals.
Assumes
Approval can be made fast enough not to lose deals.
Consequence for commercial
Some deals will be repriced or lost once terms have to be deliverable. Forecast accordingly.
Medium confidencePrepare for approval

People

Argues for: redesign the commercial system

Move to shared account ownership, and reward team development, retention and deliverability. 4 capable people have left, at €0.5m before counting what they would have sold.

Rests on
  • Fact:Capable employees have left, and this behaviour contributed.
  • Fact:Their compensation strongly rewards individual sales.
  • Assumption:4 regretted leavers in 18 months, at about €0.12m each to replace.
Assumes
People left because of account credit, and not because of pay alone.
Consequence for finance
Team-based reward changes the timing of cost. Model the transition year.
Medium confidenceHuman decision required

Finance

Conditionally for: redesign the commercial system

The dependency is growing. Exposure is €3.1m now and €3.7m in a year on current incentives. Shared ownership would bring it to €1.4m. Fund a departure reserve either way.

Rests on
  • Assumption:About 85% of the individual’s relationships are held personally, and 60% of that revenue would follow them out. Shared ownership would bring the personal share to 40%.
  • Assumption:On current incentives the individual’s share of new revenue grows about 6 points a year.
  • Assumption:New revenue is €20m a year.
Assumes
60% of personally held revenue would follow the individual.
Consequence for people
A reserve only helps if each major account has a named second relationship.
Low confidenceRecommend

Conflict

Retention against control

Commercial against Operations

Commercial would not risk €6.0m of revenue. Operations is absorbing €0.3m a year of promises it never agreed.

Calculated

Revenue that would leave with them today

€3.1m

The exposure the company carries now.

Assumption: Assumption carrying weight

About 85% of the individual’s relationships are held personally, and 60% of that revenue would follow them out. Shared ownership would bring the personal share to 40%.

Low confidence. If this is wrong, the calculations that rest on it move with it.

Unknown: Evidence to obtain first

Whether the individual can lead through others: developing colleagues, institutionalising relationships and selling what the company can deliver.

The answer could be “the transition is demonstrated” or “the individual refuses”. They lead to different decisions, which makes this the question to settle first.

The critic

A separate pass reads the positions for conflict, unsupported certainty, benefits counted twice, omitted effects and false precision.

  • Contradiction between functionsCommercial, Operations

    Commercial and Operations take opposite sides on "Promote and retain". Both cannot be followed.

  • Unsupported certaintyCommercial

    That the behaviour can be coached afterwards is a hope. Nothing yet shows the individual can lead through others.

  • Omitted second-order effectCommercial

    The case for promotion counts the revenue and leaves out what the behaviour costs: €0.3m of margin a year and €0.5m of attrition.

  • Omitted second-order effectFinance, People

    Waiting is not neutral. Exposure grows by €0.6m a year while nothing is decided.

  • Highest-value missing evidencePeople

    The most valuable unknown is whether the individual can make the transition. It is the only evidence that would justify promotion, and it can be observed within two quarters.

Where that leaves the room

Agreed

  • Nobody disputes the individual’s skill, or that the company needs the revenue.

Still in dispute

  • Commercial and Operations. Whether the revenue is worth its terms. Commercial counts what is sold. Operations counts what has to be delivered.

Not for analysis to decide

  • Compensation, promotion, succession and employment decisions belong to the chief executive. Analysis can identify concentration, simulate incentive structures and surface behavioural effects.

The disagreements are kept. Someone accountable has to choose between them.

Decide

Options, trade-offs and an accountable call.

Three credible courses of action. Each one is carried by assumptions that would need to be true. Choose the one you would take. Your choice is not scored.

Choose a course of action

Christianna’s judgement

Redesign the system. Offer the individual a larger job.

Exposure is €3.1m today and €3.7m in a year if nothing changes. Shared ownership brings it to €1.4m. Promotion is available, and it depends on the transition, not on personal revenue.

The decision as signed, at the starting position

Redesign the commercial system and build the wider team, accepting the risk that the individual leaves.

I do not punish genuine skill or remove the person reflexively.

I give them the opportunity to demonstrate a higher form of leadership: building capability in others, institutionalising relationships and selling work the organisation can deliver.

Promotion should depend on that transition, not on personal revenue alone.

Rejected
Promotion on personal revenue alone. Removing the person reflexively.
The assumption carrying it
That revenue the organisation does not own is not yet a durable capability, however large it is.
Authority I keep
Compensation, promotion, succession and employment decisions.
What I would delegate to AI
Identifying concentration, simulating incentive structures and surfacing behavioural effects.
What would change my mind
Promotion becomes appropriate if the individual demonstrates an ability to develop others, institutionalise relationships and operate within company-wide commitments.

If the relationships, knowledge and revenue belong to one person rather than the organisation, you do not yet have a durable commercial capability.

Christianna Hamilton

This is one accountable judgement for the stated objective and evidence. It is not offered as the universal answer.

Act

Bounded actions, owners and approvals.

A decision is finished when it has owners, limits and a way of being checked.

First action

Make account knowledge and relationships visible to the company.

Measure to watch

The share of the individual’s accounts with a second, named relationship inside the company.

  1. Make account knowledge and relationships visible to the company.

    CommercialPrepare for approval

  2. Introduce shared account ownership and succession coverage.

    PeopleHuman decision required

  3. Require operational approval for non-standard delivery commitments.

    OperationsPrepare for approval

  4. Reward team development, account quality, retention and deliverability.

    PeopleHuman decision required

  5. Prepare financially and commercially for departure.

    FinanceDraft

  6. Protect customers through an orderly transition plan.

    CommercialPrepare for approval

Where calculation ends and human authority begins
  1. Calculate and surface. Evidence, assumptions, arithmetic and consequences are made visible.
  2. Investigate and challenge. AI can extend the search, prepare options and test for conflict or unsupported certainty.
  3. Decide and own. An accountable person weighs the trade-offs, makes the call and remains responsible for what follows.

Learn

What would show the judgement was wrong.

A judgement should say in advance what would overturn it. Change one material condition and see whether it holds.

Change one condition

Method and provenance

The scenario is illustrative. It does not describe a client, an engagement or a real company.

What the tools do, and what remains human

  • Calculate and surface. Arithmetic and thresholds are handled consistently so the same inputs produce the same result.
  • Investigate and challenge. Functional positions expose disagreement. The critic looks for conflict, missing evidence, double counting and unsupported certainty. A live reading, where offered, can extend that challenge but cannot alter the underlying numbers or the signed decision.
  • Decide and own. The signed judgement is Christianna Hamilton’s. It is written in advance and remains the responsibility of a person, not a system.

Evidence

Items marked given in the scenario come from the written brief. Items marked illustrative modelling assumption are quantities added so that consequences can be calculated. Evidence last reviewed 2026-09-21.

Calculations in this decision

QuantityUnitWhat it assumes
New revenue from one personEUR millionNone beyond its inputs.
Revenue that would leave with them todayEUR millionPersonally held relationships follow at the stated rate.
The same exposure in a yearEUR millionCurrent incentives continue unchanged.
Growth in exposure from waiting a yearEUR millionNone beyond its inputs.
Exposure under shared ownershipEUR millionShared account ownership and succession coverage are in place.
Margin lost to unapproved termsEUR millionOverrun applies only to deals with unapproved terms.
Cost of regretted leaversEUR millionReplacement cost only. Lost sales are not counted.